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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
 
The depression is barely a tropical cyclone.  The deep convection
that was located along the southern side of the circulation earlier
today has nearly completely dissipated, and the system currently
looks like an ITCZ low-level cloud swirl.  The initial intensity is
held generously at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data.
 
The cyclone is currently experiencing strong northeasterly wind
shear, and given that the shear is expected to remain strong for
another day or so, this system could degenerate into a remnant low
during that time. However, the shear is expected to lessen after
that, and if the depression survives, it could linger for several
more days.  The models show little change in strength, and the NHC
prediction keeps the system steady in intensity through the forecast
period.
 
Since the depression is caught in weak steering currents between a
low pressure system to its east-northeast and a narrow ridge to its
northwest, it has not moved much during the past several hours.  As
the low east-northeast of the system pulls northward, the weak
depression, or its remnants, should generally drift northwestward 
during the next couple of days and then southwestward after that 
time.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 13.1N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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