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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
 
For a brief time this morning, the depression actually developed a
broken band of convection that wrapped nearly halfway around the
cyclone. However, it didn't persist for long and convection is
mostly once again limited to the southwest quadrant. Scatterometer 
data valid shortly before 18Z supported an intensity of 30 kt.
 
The depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours 
after drifting west-southwestward most of the morning. It is 
forecast to meander for the next several days with little change in 
structure, strength, or position as it continues to encounter strong 
upper-level winds but weak low- to mid-level steering flow. Near the 
end of the forecast period, the GFS indicates that the depression 
could interact with another low related to current invest 94E, which 
would cause the depression to move eastward. There is very low 
confidence in this scenario, and it is not supported by most of the 
other models. Due to the GFS outlier solution, the model consensus 
has shifted substantially eastward, however the NHC forecast has 
only been slightly adjusted in that direction.

Given the continued lack of particularly well organized convection, 
it is possible that the system could either become a remnant low or 
open into a trough, though neither of those scenarios is explicitly 
supported by the global or hurricane models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 13.0N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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