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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
 
Tropical Depression Ten continues to produce a small area of 
convection in its southwest quadrant. It would be a stretch to say 
the convection is particularly organized, but it is persistent 
nonetheless. The intensity remains 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data 
and the lack of notable change to the depression's structure since 
last night.
 
The depression continues to meander slowly westward, and while it 
could begin to gain some latitude later today, all of the reliable 
track models indicate that it won't move very much during the next 5 
days. The current structure (or lack thereof) of the cyclone would 
suggest that it could become post-tropical or even dissipate in the 
near future. However, this is not supported by any of the dynamical 
guidance.  In fact, looking 5 days ahead in the global and regional 
models, the depression is still there producing varying amounts of 
deep convection. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show the 
system persisting as a tropical depression through day 5. No changes 
of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast 
which remain near the model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 13.2N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 13.3N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 13.6N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 14.0N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 14.3N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 14.5N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 14.3N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 13.5N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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