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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western
portions of the depression's circulation this evening, however,
the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong
northeasterly shear. There has been little change to the satellite
intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer
data. As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The
northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is
not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant
change in intensity is forecast during that time. If the cyclone
survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen,
which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period.
The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a
blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model
intensity consensus.
The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone
is not expected to move very far over the next several days. A
low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to
steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next
day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow
northwestward motion is expected by early next week. While there
remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree
that the depression will not move much through the forecast period,
and little overall change to the previous forecast was required.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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