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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The circulation of the depression was devoid of deep convection for 
several hours tonight and just recently new convection has begun to 
develop near the center. Although the Dvorak data T-numbers continue 
to decrease, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed there were several 
wind vectors supporting keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. The 
ASCAT ambiguities from the overpass suggest that the low may be 
starting to become less well-defined, and if deep convection cannot 
persist for an appreciable amount of time, the system may open into 
a trough embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The current 
environment consisting of moderate northeasterly shear, modest 
moisture, and some subsidence is not expected to change all that 
much over the next few days. None of the intensity guidance except 
for the SHIPS makes the system a tropical storm. However, the 
simulated satellite imagery from various models do suggest that 
intermittent convection should continue to develop near the center 
in the near-term, which could provide enough vortex spin-up to keep 
the system a depression for a little while. The official intensity 
forecast is unchanged from the previous one, but it should be 
reiterated that the system could dissipate or degenerate to a 
convection-free remnant low at any time.

The depression is now moving just south of west at 4 kt and is being 
steered by a low-level ridge to its northwest. This ridge is 
forecast to remain in place for the next couple of days. Over the 
weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and with the loss of 
steering flow, the depression may begin to drift generally 
northwestward. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the 
previous one and is also near the TVCE/TVCX consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 14.1N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 13.7N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 13.6N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 13.7N 133.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 14.1N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 14.6N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 15.0N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 15.1N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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