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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020
 
Since the issuance of the previous NHC advisory, deep convection
associated with the depression has waned and become separated from
the low-level center due to modest northeasterly shear.  This has
resulted in the low-level center becoming exposed. With the recent
loss of organization, Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased and a
blend of the various estimates yields an initial wind speed of 30
kt.  The dynamical model guidance suggests that moderate to strong
shear will continue to plague the cyclone during the next 2 to 3
days, and the intensity guidance is not quite as bullish as before.
As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change
in strength during that time.  It still remains possible, however,
that new bursts of convection could allow the depression to cross 
the tropical storm threshold.  After 72 hours, the shear is 
forecast to decrease but less favorable thermodynamic conditions 
are expected to prevent strengthening.  The new forecast calls for 
the depression to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period, but this could occur much sooner if the shear
persists and the depression is unable to generate persistent
convection.
 
The depression is moving westward or 270/4 kt. A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the system is expected to steer the cyclone
slowly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, the depression is forecast to meander generally
northwestward. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended
toward a slower motion of the cyclone between days 2-5, and the
updated NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward to account
for this model trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 14.2N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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