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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020
GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that
the depression's low-level center is displaced a little to the
northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly
shear. Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the
initial intensity is still 30 kt. The environment around the
depression is not ideal for much strengthening. On one hand, the
system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue.
However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little
further, and the environment appears to become more subsident
within the next 2-3 days. In addition, the global models do not
show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much
strengthening. SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but
gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period. Otherwise,
the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and
the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental
conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming
a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system
back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day
period. It's also entirely possible that the system becomes a
remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized
deep convection to be maintained.
The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level
ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the
forecast period, although the system's forward speed is expected to
slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond. The new track forecast
is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows
the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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