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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020
 
Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual 
increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of 
low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT 
overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become 
well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on 
Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt 
peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It 
should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35 
kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and 
these are presumed to be rain-contaminated.
 
The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive 
environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period. 
Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm 
waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly 
vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next 
several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter 
some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official 
forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no 
change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most 
of the intensity guidance.
 
The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the 
north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly 
westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in 
decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow 
appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to 
move very slowly during the 3-5 day period.  Once the steering flow 
becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone 
northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless 
of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone 
will move very little during that time. The official forecast track 
splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and 
closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the 
5-day forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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