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Hurricane ELIDA (Text)


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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last 
advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye 
inside a symmetric central dense overcast.  Various objective and 
subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than 
the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to 
justify lowering the initial intensity yet.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt.  The track
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west-
northwestward for the next 36 h or so.  After that, the guidance is 
in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a 
decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level 
low off of the coast of California.  There is little change to the 
forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from 
the previous advisory.
 
Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h.  This
should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with 
the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by 
72 h.  The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the 
guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in
just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate 
by 72 h.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:56 UTC