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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020
Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the
eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast. Since then,
the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the
hurricane has peaked in intensity. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the
initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt.
The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west-
northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new
forecast track is similar to the previous track. After that, there
is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models,
which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining
guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off
of the coast of California. The new forecast follows the
northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has
been nudged to the right of the previous forecast.
Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h. This
should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so. The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous
forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in
just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The new
forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the
global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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