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Tropical Storm ELIDA (Text)


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Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020
 
Trends in satellite imagery over the past several hours indicate
that Elida continues to quickly increase in organization. There has
been an expanding central dense overcast, with the center of
circulation presumed to be underneath cloud tops of about -70 C.
Satellite intensity estimates TAFB and SAB as well as those from
UW-CIMSS support increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt.
 
Environmental conditions favor rapid intensification over the next
24 h or so. The latest SHIPS RI index indicates a better than 30
percent chance of Elida strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h,
and based on the convective trends, the official forecast closely
follows this guidance. By 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to cross the
26 C SST isotherm, and begin to enter a progressively drier and more
stable atmospheric environment. This should cause steady weakening
to occur. By 96 h, Elida is forecast to have been over waters cooler
than 25 C for nearly 36 h. And as a result, the simulated satellite 
imagery by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all indicate that the 
deep convection will dissipate by that time. Therefore, Elida is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the 96 h forecast 
period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from 
from previous one, is close to the HCCA model intensity guidance for 
the next couple of days, then trends towards the SHIPS guidance 
thereafter.
 
Elida continues to move west-northwestward at 13 k, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico to the east Pacific.
This pattern is forecast to remain in place for the next few days.
After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is
expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade
wind flow.  The model track forecasts are in good agreement on this
scenario, and the latest NHC forecast track is in the middle of the
consensus track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 17.8N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:55 UTC