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Tropical Depression NINE-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that 
we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for 
more than 12 hours.  Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B 
scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed 
circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is 
increasing near the estimated center while banding features are 
becoming better defined.  The system has sufficient convective 
organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical 
depression, and advisories are being initiated.  Based on a ship 
report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is 
estimated to be near 30 kt.  Upper-level outflow from the tropical 
cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving 
over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next 
week.  With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone 
is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane 
within a couple of days.  The official forecast is similar to the 
model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be 
conservative.  By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to 
weakening.
 
Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate
of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt.  The
steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several
days.  A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the
southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a
generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period.
Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower
circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow.  The
official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and
corrected multi-model consensus solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:55 UTC