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Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020
 
Due to persistent southerly vertical wind shear, Douglas has 
been devoid of deep convection for nearly 24 hours, and it appears 
that it will soon be a post-tropical remnant low. Satellite fix 
agencies are unable to determine a data-T due to the absence of 
convection, and the current intensity estimate of 35 kt is primarily 
based on a recently-obtained 0726Z ASCAT pass, which also indicates 
what appears to be a degraded circulation. This intensity estimate 
is also supported by a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 42 kt, and a 
CIRA-RAMMB estimate of 39 kt, with these winds located north of the 
center. 

The initial motion estimate is 275/20 kt, with Douglas moving 
rapidly westward to the south and southwest of a low-level ridge. 
Some increase in latitude is expected as Douglas crosses the 
International Date Line in about 24 hours, with the cyclone 
expected to dissipate shortly thereafter. The updated track and 
intensity forecast is based on regional and global model guidance, 
with little change made to the previous forecast.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 24.6N 173.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 25.1N 176.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 25.8N 180.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 26.5N 176.0E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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