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Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020
 
The satellite presentation for Douglas shows an exposed low level 
circulation center (LLCC), with deep convection limited to the 
north quadrant. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates 
range from 3.5/55 kt, from SAB and HFO, to 4.0/65 kt from JTWC. 
UW-CIMSS ADT is 58 kt. Given these estimates and the continued 
degradation noted in satellite imagery, Douglas is assigned an 
initial intensity of 60 kt, making this system a tropical storm once 
again. The degraded satellite imagery is driven by continued 20 to 
25 kt southwesterly wind shear which will remain a factor in this 
system's future for the next 36 to 48 hours. Initial motion is 
270/15, representing a persistent 12 hour westerly motion noted 
since the LLCC became exposed this morning. However since fix time, 
a slight northward component has been detected.

Douglas continues to be steered by a deep ridge to its north and 
the expectation is for this system to continue on a west to west 
northwest track through the remainder of its life. Wind shear is 
forecast to decrease somewhat after 48 hours, but global models in 
particular give Douglas no chance for redevelopment. The forecast 
track for Douglas is quite close to the previous one, falling 
within the southern third of the guidance envelope through 48 hours 
between HWRF and HMNI. This envelope is rather tight through 72 
hours, after which Douglas is forecast to dissipate.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 22.9N 163.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 23.2N 165.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 23.5N 169.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 23.9N 173.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 24.2N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 24.8N 178.3E   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 25.6N 174.2E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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