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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020
Visible satellite images show that Douglas is quite a powerful
hurricane. The eye has become more crisp during the day, and
infrared data also show that the eyewall convection has deepened.
The initial wind speed is raised to 110 kt, which matches a blend of
the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Douglas is beginning to move
across the typical cool SST gradient of the eastern Pacific,
implying that the hurricane is probably near its peak intensity.
The cyclone should only slowly weaken on Friday and Saturday due to
cooler waters along the predicted track and the vertical shear
remaining low. As the hurricane approaches the Hawaiian Islands on
Sunday, the SSTs increase but so does the shear. Since the shear
generally dominates over marginally warm waters, a continued
weakening is forecast. However, almost all of the guidance shows
Douglas near hurricane strength as it moves close to Hawaii.
The model guidance remains consistent, and no significant changes
were made to the NHC wind speed prediction.
Douglas continues moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest. A
large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should
continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for
the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn
by late in the weekend. The guidance is a little more divergent
than the previous cycle, with a subtle northward model trend at
longer range due to a weaker ridge forecast north of Hawaii, though
the ECMWF and its ensembles have shifted a little southward. Given
these mixed signals in the guidance, very little change is made to
the previous NHC track forecast, and the new official forecast lies
on the southwest side of the model envelope.
1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
Watches could be issued on Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH