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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020
 
Douglas has rapidly intensified since earlier today, with satellite 
images showing a ragged, but nearly clear eye surrounded by cold 
cloud tops of -70 C. There appears to be a little dry air intrusion 
across the northern portion of the circulation, which is limiting 
the amount of deep convection wrapping around that part of the eye. 
Both Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 
5.5/100 kt, while the ADT and SATCON estimate averages have 
increased to 105 kt. Since the cyclone's appearance has improved 
slightly since these estimates arrived, the advisory initial 
intensity has been set at 105 kt, making Douglas a major hurricane. 

The environmental conditions supporting the rapid intensification 
appear at their best at this time as the cyclone is over SSTs of 
over 28 C, with low wind shear in a moist air mass. If the cyclone 
can fight off the dry air in the northern semicircle, some 
additional strengthening is possible, especially early Thursday. 
However, Douglas should be gradually moving into a less hospitable 
environment for strengthening over the next few days, and in 36 h 
the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and into a 
region where the 500-700 mb relative humidity is less than 60 
percent. Later on in the forecast period, wind shear is also 
expected to be on the increase. These factors should cause the 
cyclone to gradually weaken beginning Thursday night. Douglas is 
expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the 
Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor 
forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The NHC forecast 
was adjusted higher in the first 12 h based on the initial 
intensity, and is very close to the previous forecast after that 
time. This intensity forecast closely follows the various consensus 
aids. 
 
The initial motion is west-northwest or 295/15. Douglas should 
continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next few 
days, steered by a large mid-level ridge extending across much of 
the central and eastern North Pacific. The cyclone is then forecast 
to turn more toward the west late in the forecast period as it 
moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance is tightly 
clustered and the new NHC is little changed from the previous one.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday.  Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the
official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 13.1N 134.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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