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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020
 
Douglas has resumed strengthening, after remaining steady state for 
almost 24 hours.  The system has developed a ragged eye during the 
past couple of hours, although the cirrus from the inner-core 
convection has been obscuring that feature somewhat.  There is a 
wide range among the satellite intensity estimates--between 55 kt 
and 77 kt--and the latest objective guidance is right at the 
hurricane threshold.  Therefore, Douglas has been upgraded to a 
65-kt hurricane, the first of the 2020 eastern Pacific season.  
During the period of reliable records, this is the 4th latest date 
on which the first hurricane of the season has formed.

Douglas continues to move westward, or 265/13 kt, due south of a 
mid-level ridge which extends from the Baja California peninsula to 
140W.  This ridge is not expected to change much in strength or 
position in the coming days, and Douglas is therefore expected to 
move westward or west-northwestward, gradually gaining latitude, 
during the entire forecast period.  There is very little spread 
among the track models, although the new suite of models is a 
little bit faster compared to the previous forecast.  The updated 
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, although it should be 
noted that the overall forecast path has changed very little.

With Douglas's improved structure, low shear and warm sea surface 
temperatures (28-29C) should support further strengthening during 
the next 36 hours or so.  There's still a significant chance of 
rapid intensification during that period, with the GFS- and 
ECWMF-based SHIPS RI guidance both over 50 percent.  After that 
time, oceanic heat content values fall below zero along Douglas's 
forecast track, and it is likely that the hurricane would begin to 
gradually weaken, although not considerably so since vertical shear 
is not expected to increase until about day 4.  SHIPS, HCCA, and 
the Florida State Superensemble are in very good agreement, 
especially during the first part of the forecast period, and so the 
NHC intensity forecast closely follows those solutions.  This new 
forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity compared to 
previous forecasts.


Key Messages:

1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the 
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance 
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions 
of the state beginning on Sunday.  Interests on the Hawaiian 
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 11.8N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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