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Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020
 
The overall appearance of Douglas has changed little over the past
several hours. Satellite images show a continuation of dry air
trying to be worked out of the eastern portion of the cyclone's
circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB indicate that the initial advisory intensity remains 55 kt.
 
The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas
will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone
back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a
favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so. 
Beyond 36 h, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should
cause Douglas to slowly weaken. The latest NHC forecast is a blend 
of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus 
aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane 
sometime on Wednesday.
 
Douglas is moving westward at around 13 kt. The ridge to the north 
of the cyclone is forecast to become oriented east-to-west while 
building westward over the next day or so. This should induce a 
gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in 
forward speed. This general west-northwest motion is then forecast 
to continue through the remainder of the 5-day period. The model 
guidance has trended a bit faster throughout the forecast period, 
and the official forecast now lies in between the clustered 
consensus aids and the previous official forecast. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 11.9N 128.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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