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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Satellite imagery indciates that Tropical Depression Eight-E is 
getting better organized, with the formation of a small central 
dense overcast and banding features outside of the central 
convection.  Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 
30 kt from SAB, and recent scatterometer data indciate winds near 
30 kt in the northwester quadrant.  Based on these data, the 
initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt.
 
The initial motion is 235/6, with the depression still being 
steered by a portion of the subtropical ridge building between it 
and Tropical Depression Seven-E.  This motion should persist with 
some increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn 
toward the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly.  This 
should be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest between 
48-60 h.  The track guidance remains in good agreement on this 
scenario, and the NHC forecast is again  in the middle of the 
guidance and close to the various consensus models.
 
The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light
shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next
several days.  The intensity guidance calls for steady
strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this
trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.
The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about
a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the
forecast, and given the seemingly-favorable environment it would 
not be a surprise if the cyclone strengthened more than currently 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 13.5N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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