ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020
Satellite imagery indciates that Tropical Depression Eight-E is
getting better organized, with the formation of a small central
dense overcast and banding features outside of the central
convection. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and
30 kt from SAB, and recent scatterometer data indciate winds near
30 kt in the northwester quadrant. Based on these data, the
initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt.
The initial motion is 235/6, with the depression still being
steered by a portion of the subtropical ridge building between it
and Tropical Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with
some increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn
toward the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This
should be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest between
48-60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC forecast is again in the middle of the
guidance and close to the various consensus models.
The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light
shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next
several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady
strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this
trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.
The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about
a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the
forecast, and given the seemingly-favorable environment it would
not be a surprise if the cyclone strengthened more than currently
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 13.5N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN