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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020
 
Satellite images show that the center of the tropical depression is
exposed well to the east-northeast of its decaying mid-level
circulation and any scant remaining convection.  A pair of recent
scatterometer passes indicate that the current wind speed is not
more than 25 kt, so that value is used for this advisory.  While
the system still has a day or so of marginally conducive
environmental conditions, the current displacement of the low- and
mid-level centers suggests that the depression is unlikely to
strengthen.  Thus, little change in intensity is forecast through
today, and some weakening is likely on Wednesday and Thursday as the
cyclone encounters cooler water and higher shear.  The timing of
remnant low status has been moved to Wednesday since the small,
poorly organized depression is expected to fall apart quickly in a
more hostile environment.
 
The cyclone continues moving westward and is forecast to move a
little faster in that general direction by late today due to the
effects of a strong ridge.  The most significant change to the
forecast is that almost all of the guidance is north of the previous
model cycle, so the NHC track prediction is shifted in that
direction.  None of the models show a closed low after 48 hours, so 
dissipation is shown after that time, which makes sense given the 
expected fragility of this system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 17.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 17.4N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 17.5N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 17.2N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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