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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020
 
Over the past several hours, the coverage of deep convection around 
the center of Cristina has gradually decreased as the cyclone 
continues to move over relatively cool 24 C waters. The latest 
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS 
SATCON all support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. 
 
Cristina is forecast to move over even cooler waters and into a 
progressively drier and more stable air mass over the next couple of 
days. These conditions should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. 
By 60 h, Cristina is forecast to have lost its deep convection near 
its center and become a remnant low. There is a chance that the 
convection could dissipate sooner than indicated, and Cristina could 
become a post-tropical cyclone while wind speeds are still greater 
than 30 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the 
previous one.
 
Cristina is moving just north of due west at 12 kt. This motion is 
expected to continue for the next several days, as the cyclone is 
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. 
early on, then by the low level easterlies once the system becomes a 
remnant low. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of tightly 
clustered track guidance, and is little changed from the previous 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 20.6N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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