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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Cristina has become better organized during the past several hours.
A curved band wraps almost completely around the center, and a
ragged eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite
images.  The cyclone is beginning to look like a hurricane, but
there is still a large spread in the latest satellite intensity
estimates, ranging from 45 to 77 kt.  In addition, a recent ASCAT
pass showed maximum winds of only 45 kt.  Based on a compromise of
all of this data, the initial intensity remains 60 kt for this
advisory.
 
Cristina could still become a hurricane today while it remains over
waters warmer than 26 C and in low vertical wind shear conditions.
However, by tonight the storm will likely be moving over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air
mass.  The combination of these negative factors for the storm
should promote a steady weakening trend beginning tonight, and
ultimately Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
in about 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update
of the previous one, and in line with the consensus models IVCN and
HCCA.
 
The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  There has
been no change to the track forecast reasoning.  A mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer
Cristina to the west-northwest during the next couple of days.
Beyond that time, when Cristina becomes a weak and shallow system, a
turn to the west is expected in the low-level flow.  The track
models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made
to the previous NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 18.8N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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