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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Satellite images and microwave data indicate that the structure of
Cristina has improved since this morning. Banding features have
become more prevalent, while deep convection has persisted over the
center throughout the day. In addition, the average of the satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB has increased since this
morning's advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity has been
raised to 60 kt.
The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification
through Friday morning, and it is expected to become a hurricane by
that time. By late Friday, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm
and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric
environment. This should result in steady weakening. There is some
spread in the guidance as to how quickly Cristina will lose its
convection later on in the forecast period. The GFS suggests this
will not occur until 120 h, while the Canadian and ECMWF indicate
this will happen in 96 h and 72 h, respectively. Based on a blend of
these, Cristina is now expected to become a remnant low by 96 h. The
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is
close to the consensus aids.
Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 10 kt. The mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen
a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina
on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over
the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is
expected. The guidance shifted slightly northward beyond day 3,
so the NHC track forecasted was nudged a little north for that
time frame. Otherwise, the latest NHC track forecast is little
changed compared to the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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