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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
 
Cristina is still being affected by some northeasterly vertical wind 
shear as visible satellite imagery shows that the center is located 
near the northeastern edge of the large curved convective band.  The 
various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range 
from 35 to 45 kt, and a recent ASCAT overpass revealed a small area 
of 35-40 kt wind vectors near the center.  Based on these data, the 
initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The moderate vertical wind shear 
over the system is forecast to abate over the next 12-24 hours.  
This, along with SSTs of 28-29C, should allow for strengthening and 
Cristina is still forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two.  
Although Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated over 
the past 24 hours, with the more favorable atmospheric conditions 
anticipated beginning Wednesday, a period of steady to rapid 
strengthening is still possible.  The latest intensity guidance 
shows a slightly lower peak wind speed than before, so the new NHC 
intensity forecast has been nudged in that direction.  After 72 
hours, Cristina will be moving over cooler waters and steady 
weakening is expected later in the period.
 
Satellite fixes show that Cristina is moving west-northwestward or 
305/11 kt. There has been no significant change to the track foreast 
reasoning.  Cristina should continue on a west-northwestward 
heading over the next several days to the south of a large mid-level 
ridge over the southwestern United States.  The overall track 
guidance envelop has shifted slightly northward, so the NHC track 
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The new track forecast lies 
between the previous official foreast and the most recent consensus 
aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 13.0N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 13.8N 105.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 15.0N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 16.1N 109.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.0N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 18.0N 112.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 19.0N 114.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 20.5N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 21.8N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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