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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
Early morning microwave and first-light visible imagery revealed
that the center of Cristina was located well to the east-northeast
of previous estimates. The center is now located near the end of
a long curved band that goes around portions of its western
semicircle. The center position relative to the convection suggests
that at least some northeasterly shear is negatively affecting the
organization of Cristina and it may not be well vertically aligned
yet. Various satellite intensity estimates have increased since the
last advisory, but were also based in part on an assumption that the
center of Cristina was located farther west, so the initial wind
speed has been conservatively held at 35 kt for now.
The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount to the
east of the previous one, mainly due to the updated initial
position. That said, the overall thinking behind the forecast has
not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S.
should steer Cristina on a general west-northwestward path through
the end of the week. The official forecast is very near the latest
multi-model consensus at all forecast times.
The shear and some nearby dry air that appear to have
inhibited Cristina's organization so far are not expected to
persist as negative factors for much longer. All of the models
still forecast strengthening, and given the very favorable
environment that the cyclone will encounter in a day or two,
a period of rapid intensification at some point would not be
surprising. The NHC forecast remains near the high end of the
guidance envelope, near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Cristina
is forecast to reach cooler waters that will likely lead to
weakening over the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 12.2N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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