ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
 
Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center of Cristina
and in curved bands over the western portion of the circulation.
An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds of
around 35 kt.  Based on that data and Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35
kt from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt.
 
Cristina is expected to strengthen during the next few days due to
the favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm
SSTs, and its developing compact inner core as observed in
satellite data.  The only limiting factor is some dry air that has
entrained into the eastern portion of the circulation.  However,
given the largely conducive conditions for strengthening, the NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance
during the next 3 days.  Although it is not explicitly forecast,
rapid intensification could occur sometime during the next couple
of days. Cristina will likely be moving over SSTs below 26 C and
into a drier and more stable air mass late this week and this
weekend, and that should induce a weakening trend.  This intensity
forecast is mostly an update of the previous one and in best
agreement with corrected consensus model HCCA.
 
Satellite fixes indicate that Cristina is moving west-northwestward
at about 11 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is fairly
straightforward.  A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern
U.S. is expected to strengthen in place during the next several
days.  This should keep Cristina on a west-northwestward path well
offshore of Mexico through the remainder of the week and into this
weekend.  Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track
forecast, and this prediction lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 11.5N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN