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Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020
 
Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the 
low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better 
organized since this morning.  ASCAT data from earlier this 
afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat 
elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that 
the circulation has become better defined.  The scatterometer data 
also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with 
higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on 
these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical 
depression at this time. 

The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting 
of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a 
moist atmosphere.  As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated 
over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the 
cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity 
forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN 
and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance.  Given 
the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a 
period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity 
forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to 
move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause 
weakening by the end of the period.  

Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial 
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being 
steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge 
located over the south-central United States. A general 
west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is 
expected over the next several days.  The dynamical model guidance 
is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track 
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 10.5N  99.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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