ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020 500 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020 Mid- and high-level clouds that had been obscuring Boris' low-level circulation center (LLCC) have cleared, leaving it nearly completely exposed, despite a recent short-lived burst of thunderstorms in the northwest quadrant. A 0710Z ASCAT-C pass and a 1110Z VIIRS image (nighttime visible) were helpful in center- locating, adding confidence to the initial motion estimate of 270/06 kt. A blend of available analyses and intensity estimates supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt. Boris is moving through an environment characterized by debilitating southerly wind shear, and dry low- to mid-level air, which should prevent significant convection from persisting over the LLCC. Therefore, Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow, and the updated official intensity forecast offers little change, and is in line with the intensity consensus. As Boris weakens, guidance indicates it will be increasingly steered by a surface high to the distant north, with a subtle turn toward the west-southwest anticipated before dissipation occurs early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 12.3N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 12.0N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 11.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 10.8N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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