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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP032020
1100 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020
 
After a brief burst of deep convection earlier this afternoon,
thunderstorms associated with Boris have since waned. Lingering mid-
and high-level clouds are obscuring the low-level circulation
center (LLCC) in latest infrared satellite images, reducing
confidence as to its exact location. Microwave passes at 0313Z and
0419Z were helpful in locating the center, and we are fairly
confident that poorly-organized Boris has entered the central
Pacific. Boris is the first June tropical cyclone in the
basin since Barbara in 2001, and only the second on record, dating
back to 1966. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt, in
relative agreement with latest intensity estimates from SAB, PHFO,
UW-CIMSS and CIRA.
 
Boris is estimated to be moving 270/06 kt through an environment
characterized by debilitating southerly wind shear, and an
increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. These factors should
prevent significant convection from persisting over the LLCC, and
Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low over the weekend.
The updated official intensity forecast is very close to the
previous one, and close to the statistical and dynamical guidance.
As Boris weakens, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level
trade wind flow, with reliable guidance indicating a turn toward 
the west-southwest before dissipating. The official track forecast 
follows suit, in reasonable agreement with the latest model 
consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 12.4N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 12.4N 141.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 12.1N 144.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 11.6N 146.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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