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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020
There was a brief burst of deep convection over the estimated
center of Boris but, overall, the system is not very well
organized. The cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to
northeast which is indicative of significant shear over the
cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt in agreement
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Boris will be moving
through an environment of south-southwesterly shear associated with
a large upper-level low and associated trough near and to the west
of 140W. This shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air,
should cause gradual weakening and Boris will likely degenerate into
a remnant low over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is
the same as the previous one, and similar to the latest DSHIPS and
LGEM guidance.
Boris appears to have turned back toward a west-northwesterly
heading and the motion estimate is 290/6 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn westward within the next 12 to 24 hours in
response to a mid-level ridge to its north. Thereafter, the
weakening low should begin to move a little south of west while
embedded in the low-level trade wind flow. The official track
forecast is in reasonable agreement with the latest model consensus.
Since Boris is about to cross 140W longitude, it will be moving
into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility,
and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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