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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020
Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear,
with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the
northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a
blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS
satellite consensus. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and
marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow
weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. The new
intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus.
The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7. Boris should
move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small
cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After
that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then
west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the
low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast has
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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