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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020
Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past
several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in
coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A
pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and
marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow
weakening trend over the next 72 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for
Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate
shortly after 72 h.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt.
The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory,
and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the
previous advisory track. Boris is expected to move
west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone
remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time,
Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later
in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is
steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast
track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and
lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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