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Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020
 
Convection has increased further in association with the tropical
cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense 
overcast.  A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt 
winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in 
the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is 
upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris.
 
While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional 
strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity 
guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time.  
Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12 
h.  After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air 
entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system 
degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely 
after 72 h.  The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, 
but it still is a little above the intensity consensus.
 
The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8.  This motion
should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the 
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  After that, a turn toward 
the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and 
the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism.  
The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous 
forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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