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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020
Convection has increased some this morning near the center of
Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly
organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with
scatterometer data from several hours ago.
Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the
intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is
open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows
slight strengthening during that period. After that time,
increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause
the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low
by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity
forecast is a little above the intensity consensus.
The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves
along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a
turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone
weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering
mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous
forecast and lies the near consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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