ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020 1000 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show that the center of Amanda has moved inland over southeastern Guatemala. The system is producing a large area of deep convection and heavy rainfall over much of southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Although the center is inland, recent reports from El Salvador indicate some areas are receiving winds gusts above tropical storm force. The initial intensity will remain 35 kt for this advisory, but rapid weakening should begin very soon as the center moves farther inland. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area or dissipate over the the mountainous terrain of Guatemala later today or tonight. Amanda is moving north-northeast or 015/8 kt. The cyclone is embedded within a larger cyclone gyre located over eastern Mexico, and Amanda or its remnants should turn northward today, and then northwestward tonight and Monday as it steered around the gyre. Amanda's remnants should move over eastern Mexico on Monday and be near the southern Bay of Campeche by late Monday and Tuesday, which could allow for the formation of a new tropical cyclone. Although the official forecast implies a continuous track of the system, it is certainly possible that the low-level center will dissipate and that a new low will form in association with Amanda's remnants over eastern Mexico or the southern Bay of Campeche. Please refer to NHC's Atlantic basin Special Tropical Weather Outlooks for more details on possible tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The main hazard from Amanda, and the larger gyre in which the cyclone is embedded, is expected to be heavy rainfall. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across portions of Central America and southern Mexico, and these threats will continue over the next several days even after Amanda is no longer a tropical cyclone. For additional information, see products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 14.7N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.5N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 01/1200Z 18.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 02/0000Z 18.7N 92.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/1200Z 18.8N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 03/0000Z 18.5N 93.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:00 UTC