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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020
Earlier NRL WindSAT microwave imagery and GOES16 ProxyVIS showed the
depression's ill-defined center of circulation still displaced
well to the northwest of a small, shapeless patch of deep
convection. A 0446 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass revealed a couple
of 30 kt winds to the east of the surface center. Accordingly,
the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.
Low to mid-level drier air indicated by the SHIPS intensity
guidance, and 20-25 kt of westerly shear shown in the UW-CIMSS
shear product, are certainly prohibiting convective development.
An intruding dry, stable air mass, increasing shear, and
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures should induce a
weakening trend soon and ultimately cause the cyclone to become a
remnant low by tonight. The large-scale and regional guidance
all show the depression dissipating no later than Monday night.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/7 kt.
A Low to mid-tropospheric ridge anchored north of the depression
should influence a continued northwestward motion through today.
Afterward, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a shallow
remnant low, and move westward in the low-level easterly flow until
it dissipates. The new official forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and is primarily based on the multi-model
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 15.2N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW