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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012020
800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020

Deep convection has increased a little in association with Tropical
Depression One-E during the past several hours.  However, visible
satellite images and an AMSR2 microwave pass from a few hours ago
indicate that the low-level center is displaced to the northwest of
the main area of showers and thunderstorms.  The initial intensity
is held at 30 kt, following the Dvorak classification from TAFB.
This estimate is also in line with the latest satellite intensity
estimates from CIMSS ADT and SATCON.  It is also worth noting that
dry air is wrapping into the circulation of the depression, which
is likely limiting its convective organization.

Although some very short-term strengthening can't be ruled out and
it is possible that the cyclone could briefly become a tropical
storm, weakening should begin on Sunday. The system will be moving
into an environment of strong westerly shear, drier air, and
progressively cooler waters. These conditions should cause the
system to become a remnant low by Sunday night, when the shear is
expected to be near 30 kt and SSTs around 24 C beneath the cyclone.
All of the models show the the depression dissipating entirely early
next week.

The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier today.  The
depression is currently moving northwestward on the southwest side
of a mid-level ridge, and it should continue moving in that
direction for the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it expected to
move westward in the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 14.8N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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