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BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.4 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to 
continue during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, Iota 
is expected to make landfall in northeastern Nicaragua during the 
next hour or two and move inland across northern Nicaragua and 
southern Honduras on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Rapid weakening is forecast 
after Iota moves inland, and it is expected to dissipate over 
Central America on Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).  Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported 
sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 103 mph
(166 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air 
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 920 mb (27.17 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and 
these winds will spread inland across northern Nicaragua during the 
next several hours.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the 
Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical 
storm conditions should subside during the next few hours on the 
islands of Providencia and San Andres.
 
RAINFALL:  Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:
 
Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) across northeast Nicaragua and northern Honduras.
 
El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
 
This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
 
Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).
 
This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
 
Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
 
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