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TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL312020
0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI TO
BLUEFIELDS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUNTA
PATUCA...AND HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA
CASTILLA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  77.0W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  77.0W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  76.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.9N  77.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.3N  79.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.7N  81.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.0N  82.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.1N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N  85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE  50SE  30SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 13.6N  87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  77.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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