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TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL312020
1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* PROVIDENCIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  76.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  76.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  75.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.9N  76.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.4N  78.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.9N  80.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N  81.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N  83.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N  84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N  86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N  90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  76.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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