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Tropical Depression Iota Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020
 
Deep convection is no longer occurring near Iota's center, but 
curved broken bands of convection still exist within 100 n mi in 
the northern semicircle. For that reason, Iota is being maintained 
as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT and ScatSat scatterometer data 
between 0200-0300 UTC indicated surface winds of 30-32 kt offshore 
the north-central coast of Honduras, while tropical-storm-force wind 
gusts were noted in surface observations along the north coast of 
Honduras. As a result, the intensity was maintained at 35 kt at the 
0600 UTC synoptic time. Since then, however, winds have decreased 
along the coast and offshore, which justify making Iota a 30-kt 
tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Therefore, the 
Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has been 
discontinued.

The initial motion estimate is now 255/11 kt. Iota or its remnants 
should continue moving west-southwestward across El Salvador, 
possibly emerging over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as a 
post-tropical cyclone before dissipation occurs by late today. At 
this time, most of the available NHC model guidance does not show 
regeneration over the eastern Pacific, with only the HWRF and HMON 
regional models showing brief redevelopment to tropical depression 
status on Thursday after Iota degenerates to a remnant low later 
today. However, this is considered a low probability alternate 
scenario due to unfavorable upper-level winds expected across the 
eastern North Pacific.
 
Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and 
mud slides. These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic 
effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction 
from a couple of weeks ago.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected 
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy 
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of 
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated 
soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic 
impacts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 13.7N  88.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND EL SALVADOR
 12H  18/1800Z 13.0N  89.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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