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Hurricane Iota Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
 
Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas.
Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a
circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring
surrounding that feature.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were
investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum
pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb.  Based on the aircraft
data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt.
 
Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is 
expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the 
cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras.  Rapid 
weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is 
anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America 
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus 
models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS 
guidance.
 
This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an 
extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive 
winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall.  In addition, the 
situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in 
almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a 
little less than two weeks ago.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.
 
2.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected 
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy 
rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua 
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, 
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 13.6N  83.4W  135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 12H  17/1200Z 13.7N  84.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0000Z 13.8N  86.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 13.8N  88.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
 
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