ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020
 
Iota continues to strengthen.  Deep convection has been increasing
in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images
indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined.  The Dvorak
classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since
the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is
set a little higher to 60 kt.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will 
be investigating Iota overnight.
 
Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the 
latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida 
and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota. 
This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the 
western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward 
during the next couple of days and then westward to 
west-southwestward after that.  This motion should take the core of 
Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night.  The models are in good 
agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the 
previous one.
 
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for
Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a
little more than 2 days.  Since the storm appears to be developing
an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days
seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount
of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous
cycle.  Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the
NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota
becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After
Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves
over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC
forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it
approaches the coast of Central America.  A Hurricane Warning has
been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras,
and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
there beginning Monday.
 
2.  Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.
 
3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to 
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions 
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua 
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s recent effects there, 
resulting in significant impacts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 12.7N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 12.9N  77.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 13.3N  79.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 13.7N  81.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 14.0N  82.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 14.1N  84.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0000Z 14.0N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z 13.6N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN