ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
 
Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number   6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Corrected the numbering of the Key Messages and a typo in first 
paragraph

Deep convection has re-developed closer to the low-level center of 
Iota during the afternoon, and there has been an increase in banding 
over the southeastern portion of the circulation.  Data from an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has flown an unusually 
long mission from its base in Biloxi, Mississippi, indicate that the 
increase in organization has resulted in strengthening. The plane 
measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and SFMR winds of 
46 kt. Those were the basis for the increase in wind speed on the 
1800 UTC intermediate advisory.  Given the continued increase in 
organization, the initial intensity has been set at 50 kt for this 
advisory.  The aircraft reported that the minimum pressure had 
fallen to around 995 mb during its final pass through the center. 

The aircraft data indicate that Iota has not developed a tight 
inner core yet, but with the increase in convection closer to the 
center, and with the storm moving away from the coast of 
northwestern Colombia, it is likely Iota will begin to strengthen 
at a faster rate by Sunday.  The upper-level wind pattern is 
forecast to become quite favorable while the storm traverses SSTs of 
around 29C.  These conditions are likely to result in steady to 
rapid strengthening over the next couple of days and the NHC 
intensity forecast again predicts that Iota will be at or near 
major hurricane strength when it nears the coast of Central America. 
The SHIPS model is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification (a 
30-kt increase in wind speed) over each of the next 24 h periods, 
and the NHC intensity forecast is quite similar, and is also in 
good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid. 
 
Satellite imagery and the aircraft fixes show that Iota has
continued to move west-southwestward today.  A mid-level ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico and Florida should build eastward over the 
western Atlantic during the next day or two.  This should allow 
Iota to move westward to west-northwestward at a slightly faster 
forward speed, with this motion bringing the storm near the 
coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras by late Monday.  After 
landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected to take the 
center of Iota inland over Central America.  The track guidance has 
again shifted southward, partially due to the more southward 
initial position once again.  This has resulted in another 
southward shift in the NHC track forecast, which is again near the 
TVCA multi-model consensus. 

The latest track forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane 
Warning for Providencia island, and Hurricane Watches were issued 
earlier this afternoon for portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and 
Honduras.  In addition to the wind and storm surge threats, Iota is 
likely to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central 
America that are still recovering from Hurricane Eta's impacts. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Iota is expected to intensify and be at or near major hurricane
strength when it approaches the coast of Central America.  There is
a risk of damaging wind and a dangerous storm surge across portions
of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday, and a Hurricane Watch
is in effect for a portion of that area.
 
2.  Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts 
are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night.  Tropical 
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are 
possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.
 
3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in
Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s
recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 12.6N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 12.7N  77.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 13.0N  78.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 13.4N  80.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 13.8N  82.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 14.0N  83.5W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/1800Z 14.0N  85.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/1800Z 13.6N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN