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Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020
 
A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta's 
center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with 
the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n 
mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this 
convection has become farther displaced from Theta's center, as the 
system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the 
cyclone's appearance has changed little today, the initial 
intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A 
overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment 
should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther 
displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to 
degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also 
weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in 
good agreement with the intensity guidance.
 
Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower 
pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta 
is weakening, which will result in a continued slow 
east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a 
shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become 
southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead 
of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the 
northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few 
days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one 
and lies near the track consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 31.7N  19.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 31.7N  18.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/1800Z 32.1N  17.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z 33.2N  17.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z 35.1N  16.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0600Z 38.1N  14.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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