Tropical Storm ETA (Text)

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  36...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Corrected a typo in the second paragraph

Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around
11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt.  Since then it has
moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of
extreme southwestern Florida.  The storm has generally changed
little in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near
55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data.  Bands
of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portions
of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida.
Eta is now moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  The upper-level 
trough that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure 
system off the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward 
to west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through 
tonight.  The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to 
collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing 
Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48 
hour time period.  After that time, the models diverge significantly 
with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response 
to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern 
Gulf of Mexico.  However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models 
show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta, 
which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in 
those models.  The new track forecast shows a slower northward to 
northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as a 
compromise of the latest models and continuity.  Due to the poor 
model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the 
longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if 
the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions.
The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during
the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains
in light-to-moderate wind shear conditions.  However, there will be
a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the
amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on
exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly
shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow
decay.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will
be located later in the week.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible
across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today.  Flash and
urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas
and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor
river flooding in central Florida.
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today.
3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys.  Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress
of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.
INIT  09/0900Z 25.2N  82.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.6N  83.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 23.8N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 23.9N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 24.8N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 26.0N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 26.7N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 27.8N  84.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 29.4N  83.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:10:46 UTC