Hurricane ETA (Text)

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020
Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct 
eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C.  Based on 
continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and 
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity 
estimate remains 130 kt.  Images from the San Andres radar show 
at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely 
stopped the rapid deepening process.  Nonetheless, Eta is an 
extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm 
surges and catastrophic damage.  After the center moves inland 
later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation 
interacts with land.  The official forecast is similar to the 
Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a 
depression by tomorrow.  It is not certain that the surface 
circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the 
next 3 days or so.  The official forecast shows the system, perhaps 
at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast 
period.  It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 
days are highly uncertain at this time.

The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of 
west or about 250/4 kt.  This motion will take the center across 
the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon.  A weak ridge to 
the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to 
west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days.  By 
96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should 
cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted 
earlier, this future track is quite uncertain.
Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding 
will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning.  
Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within 
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua.  A Tropical Storm Warning 
is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.  
2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.  Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.
3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to 
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding 
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas 
of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also possible across 
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the 
Cayman Islands.
INIT  03/0900Z 13.8N  83.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 13.8N  83.6W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0600Z 13.8N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 14.0N  85.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0600Z 14.5N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/1800Z 15.0N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 15.7N  89.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z 17.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  08/0600Z 19.0N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:10:44 UTC