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Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020
 
Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few 
hours.  A large convective band is evident well to the east and 
northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much 
curvature at this time.  A small burst of deep convection is 
occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages 
of the development of a Central Dense Overcast.  Currently, there 
is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little 
lightning near the center.  The intensity is held at 35 kt for this 
advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  
Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and 
in an environment of fairly light vertical shear.  Therefore, 
strengthening is likely.  The official forecast, like the 
previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before 
approaching Central America.  There is also a possibility of rapid 
strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification 
Index.  The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest 
corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and 
follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point.

The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of 
initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt.  The 
track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly.  A 
mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a 
westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days.  This 
would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or 
so.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and 
lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the 
corrected consensus.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as 
it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there 
is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall 
for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches 
have been issued.  Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions 
of those areas later today.
 
2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to 
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with 
landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, 
the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern 
Honduras and northern Nicaragua. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 15.2N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 15.3N  77.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 15.3N  79.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 15.1N  81.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 14.7N  82.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 14.4N  83.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 14.2N  83.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/0600Z 14.3N  85.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  06/0600Z 15.0N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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