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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
 
...ZETA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.3N 89.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.3
North, longitude 89.0 West.  Zeta is moving toward the northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to
continue today.  Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a
faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central
Gulf of Mexico tonight.  Zeta is forecast to approach the northern
Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the
southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a hurricane
again later today.  Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane
strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico within areas of
onshore winds.
 
Along the northern Gulf coast, the combination of a dangerous storm
surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to
be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The
water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in
the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...
 
Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.
 
An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday.  The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area in Mexico this morning.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the
northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late
Wednesday.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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